'Always a promise ... always a deficit': Sask. Party platform overstates future revenue, economist says

The Saskatchewan Party unveiled its $1.2 billion election platform on Saturday, which is largely built on tax relief and affordability.

Released a day after the Saskatchewan NDP’s own platform — on Saturday of Thanksgiving weekend — voters now have the best laid plans of the province's major parties before them.

"The fact of the matter is elections are all about nickels and dimes. Because at the same time that any party is making promises on tax cuts or fee reductions, they're doing so with an understanding that has an overall impact on the books," Saskatoon Chamber of Commerce CEO Jason Aebig said.

With less than two weeks to go until election night, how to handle the province's finances and provide some relief to taxpayers has come into focus. By all indications, parties have opted not to make major announcements or offer sweeping visions for Saskatchewan in the next four years.

"I don't think any party is willing to jump out and make a big bold promise that could end up being very expensive and ultimately contribute to budget problems down the road," Aebig said. "Don't forget that today's tax cut is potentially tomorrow's deficit."

The Sask. Party platform promises to generate a surplus budget in the final two years of the five-year plan. According to the party, the province is projected to have a $366.6-million deficit in 2024-25, a $178.9-million deficit in 2025-26, a $46.5-million deficit in 2026-27, a $16.4-million surplus in 2027-28 and a $195.5-million surplus in 2028-29.

The plan predicts a similar arc to the NDP’s own platform — deficits decreasing over several years toward minor surpluses.

University of Saskatchewan economist Haizhen Mou says the figures are difficult to trust because the party is using the past 10 years of revenue growth to predict an average of 3.8 per cent annual increase to revenues in the next four years.

Mou says the most recent financial outlook show the province is highly unlikely to maintain that trend.

“I doubt we'll have the same rate of economic growth rate in the next four or five years," she said. "A weaker economic growth forecasting, plus a major tax reduction. That means the revenue won't be as good as it probably is portrayed here."

Mou said many of these amount to little more than campaign promises.

"Always a promise. 'We'll balance the budget,' but there's always a deficit," Mou said.

Mou said a major tax reduction initiative could also take a bite out of future revenues. The NDP said it would axe the provincial sales tax on groceries and children's clothing. While the Sask. Party committed to reducing personal income tax and raising the low-income tax credit, which applies to a much larger population.

"This sweeping tax reduction in income tax will cost the government even more than the targeted PST reduction offered on certain categories," Mou said.

She says what's missing is the action item that will kickstart the economy and achieve these goals.

"I didn't see quite a vision of how to really grow the economy and how to really give a shake up to the province and quality of life," Mou said. "It's kind of like both parties are doing something, but they are spreading dollars in different areas."

With less than two weeks to go until election night, no political fireworks are expected as parties take a grounded approach to spending.

"People will see and feel them," Aebig said of the affordability efforts announced so far. "They just may not come in with the silver bullet, big bang sort of approach that we might be accustomed to."