Toxicologist predicts Saskatoon's COVID-19 case count to fall 90% in coming weeks

A University of Saskatchewan researcher expects that Saskatoon's COVID-19 daily new case count will drop to about 15-20 around the first or second week of February.

"They won't completely go away. But the numbers will be very low compared to what they are now," said toxicologist John Giesy, whose team measures coronavirus RNA in Saskatoon's wastewater.

The province reported 235 new cases in Saskatoon on Monday. His projection represents about a 91 per cent drop from that mark.

However, he said he can't predict how many people will end up in hospital.

Traces of Omicron RNA in Saskatoon's wastewater began appearing around the third week of December and peaked over the holidays, then started to decline. The numbers spiked again when school started after the holiday break and are now heading back down, he said.

Traces dropped by 39 per cent in his team's weekly report on Monday.

Omicron continues to be the dominant variant of concern in Saskatoon’s wastewater; Delta has become undetectable.

His projection is based on Saskatchewan being about two weeks behind Ontario, he said.

The rate of active cases of COVID-19 in Ontario was 456 per 100,000 people as of Sunday. Saskatchewan's figure was 1,126 per 100,000 people.

Giesy also said Public Health has contacted him about using the researchers' data to fill in the gaps in the official case counts after changes to testing procedures.

The province now recommends people who are asymptomatic or those with mild symptoms opt for a rapid antigen test rather than a PCR test, in an effort to preserve testing capacity.

Viral RNA load in Prince Albert’s wastewater has decreased by 58 per cent and North Battleford has seen an 8.1 per cent drop.