Hard for voters to get excited about Saskatchewan's 'little election,' political scientist says

A Saskatoon-based political scientist doesn't expect Saskatchewan's provincial election to be dominated by large issues, explosive events or political fireworks prior to voting day on Oct. 28.

"Right now, it's a little election," said Ken Coates, professor emeritus at the Johnson Shoyama Graduate School of Public Policy at the University of Saskatchewan.

"It's an election about little things."

Coates said with no major issues or scandals plaguing any political party, there likely won't be many days that will create drama or divert parties away from daily announcements and rallies across the province.

In recent months, the Saskatchewan Party and NDP have tackled affordability.

The Sask. Party says it will reform tax thresholds if elected, and the NDP says it will give citizens tax breaks and won't increase taxes if elected. Coates says to expect more "small politics" as each party focuses on fringe issues.

"What does that sound like? That's bribery. And you're being bribed with your own money," Coates said.

Paths to victory

With Wednesday marking day two of the campaign, Coates says there are clear paths to victory for each party.

For the Saskatchewan Party to form government again, Coates said the strategy is as simple as maintaining its hold in rural Saskatchewan and win some suburban seats in Saskatoon and Regina.

Coates said if leader Scott Moe and the rest of the party stay on task during the campaign and don't make outrageous promises, the party will be set up for success. Rather than squabble with NDP values, Coates envisions the party strategy as repositioning itself as the "defender of the West" against Justin Trudeau and the federal Liberal party.

"Saskatchewan is now the sort of the center of the Canadian conservative movement," Coates said. "And so, act like that. Defend within the status quo."

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As for the NDP, Coates says its path to an election win is more challenging.

For people to not only see a Premier-in-waiting, but a government-in-waiting, Coates says the party's biggest strength is also its biggest liability: trade unions.

Coates says the NDP must keep strong ties with industry unions, but not seem like they're beholden to them to gain enough seats to form government.

An equally challenging issue for the NDP is gaining support in rural Saskatchewan, Coates says. Rediscovering this large cache of votes will be necessary to winning, Coates says, and he feels the party would be wise of crafting a "rural message" that resonates with voters so they can claw back some support away from the Sask. Party.

"There's not been the perception that the NDP party gets it. They focus on urban poverty issues. They don't focus on the declining population of the small towns," Coates said.

Unlikely to win all rural seats, Coates says the NDP could go after small towns near Regina and Saskatoon to maximize results. Ridings in Humboldt or Moose Jaw are more likely to fall its way than Kindersley, for example.

Coates says while of the allegiance of rural voters has remained with the Sask. Party — with no rural seats changing hands in the 2020 election — the NDP has less a month to find a way to connect with constituents outside of the province’s cities.

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"What's missing here and missing in most places is the urban areas should realize that their prosperity is based on the prosperity of rural areas," Coates said.

With urban economies tied to rural areas — for example, potash or agriculture jobs filling offices in Saskatoon — Coates says political parties will need to change their focus to keep people and opportunities in rural parts of the province.

"We have a national crisis around this disconnect in rural and urban. They're not separate areas, they're actually integrated economically. People don't understand that," Coates said.

As for any third parties, like the Green Party, Saskatchewan Progress Party or Saskatchewan United Party, Coates said it's historically been very difficult to gain any traction. He said the most likely form of success could come from a well-known candidate who performs well in a strategic riding.

Next Election

Coates says this election is largely about positioning. The Saskatchewan Party will look to continue its 17 years of governance by positioning itself well in enough urban ridings, while maintaining its stronghold in rural Saskatchewan.

While Coates said the NDP may be looking to position itself to form government next election and spend this election and the next four years building support around leader Carla Beck.

With no prestigious or overly popular candidates, Coates says the party may try to buy some time to give candidates legislative experience. The Saskatchewan Party has had a number of members not seek re-election this fall, but the issue isn't as daunting for them since many lesser-known MLAs have already served as cabinet ministers in recent months and years.

"That's a perfectly legitimate response. It's not a bad thing. You don't have very large coffers right now. And one of the problems you have when you have a small caucus, is it it's hard to sell yourself as a government-in-waiting because some of your members of legislature are cabinet-ready and others aren't," Coates said of the NDP.

As for this election, Coates said with smaller issues expected to dominate the campaign trail, it will take something big to shift public perception around the election.

"It's really hard to get excited about an election campaign when the parties themselves don't seem excited," Coates said.