Sask. economy will lead the nation in 2023 growth, despite slowdown: TD Economics

Favourable conditions for exports are expected to buoy the Saskatchewan economy in 2023, according to a TD Economics report. (Courtesy: BHP)

Analysts at TD Bank say Saskatchewan will see the economy slow down significantly in 2023.

Its provincial economic report released on Thursday predicts the province will avoid recession, but that higher borrowing costs will contribute to much slower growth.

Still, TD says Saskatchewan will be one of the nation’s growth leaders in 2023.

The report says the province could see job growth of around 1.6 per cent, down from 3.5 per cent in 2022, and GDP growth of 2 per cent in 2023, down from 5.5 per cent in 2022.

The economy will be buoyed by growth in China, the E.U. and the U.S., analysts say.

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“This more favourable backdrop should benefit exporters in all provinces. Oil prices should also climb given improving Chinese demand, boosting prospects in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador.”

The household debt-to-income ratio fell sharply in recent quarters and remains low in Saskatchewan relative to other provinces, pointing to some resilience among consumers, according to the report.

Home prices in Saskatchewan are expected to decline by 2.2 per cent this year, and TD predicts sales will shrink by over 16 per cent.