'Nothing will move': Concern over rail strike reaches fever pitch in commodity-driven Saskatchewan

Concern over a potential rail strike is hitting a fever pitch in Saskatchewan.

With only nine days left to avoid a historic disruption to the Canadian economy, business leaders and politicians are running out of options.

"It's hard to overstate it, and it's actually hard to imagine a more consequential labor disruption that Canada could actually ever face," Greg Northey, the vice president of corporate affairs with Pulse Canada, said Tuesday.

"If you have both railways not functioning, quite frankly, nothing will move."

Pulse Canada represents thousands of Canadian producers, and exports and sells their crops abroad. Northey says if a strike or lockout happens, it will affect nearly everything in the economy.

Both CN Rail and CPKC have said they will lock out employees — thousands of conductors, engineers and railyard workers — on Aug. 22 if a deal can't be reached.

Both sides have been negotiating for months with little progress.

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With so much riding on rail systems functioning as normal, industry experts and politicians are looking to Ottawa to avoid a strike or lockout.

"When we are an exporting nation like we are, and especially this province, exporting commodities around the world, we're very concerned about our trade relationships with other countries," Agriculture Minister David Marit said Monday.

"And that has a very detrimental impact."

Northey said many of his customers are weighing the risks of doing business with Canada right now, given the implications of a strike.

Some of Saskatchewan's most precious sectors — farming and potash — are also nervously waiting for updates on negotiations.

With a rebound for crops in many parts of the province this growing season after multiple years of drought conditions, farmers may not get the relief they're hoping for.

"You can have it for a day or two or a week, but it backs things up for a month, and then that just carries through for the whole year," says Dale Heenan, who farms south of Grand Coulee.

"Yeah, it's not good."

Canpotex, the world's largest exporter of potash, said there is simply no alternative to shipping potash by rail. One week of Canpotex train traffic is the equivalent to roughly 10,000 trucks on the road, according to a company spokesperson.

After last year's strikes at the Port of Vancouver and St. Lawrence Seaway, Canpotex is worried about the reputation of the country.

“Frequent domestic disruptions are chipping away at Canada’s reputation as a reliable, stable trading partner, and it should concern all that this played out after the Port of Vancouver strike when Russia replaced Canada as top potash supplier to important markets, like Indonesia and Malaysia," a statement from the company said.

"We are stepping up to ship more Canadian potash in light of sanctions and restrictions on Russia and Belarus, but that hinges on Canada’s railroads and ports functioning."

Minister of Highways Lori Carr penned a letter to the federal ministers of labour and transport Tuesday, urging them to ensure there is no interruption of rail service.

Last week, the Canada Industrial Relations Board ruled rail workers are non-essential, and Premier Scott Moe took to social media to join the growing calls across the country for Ottawa to step in before it's too late.

"The tools in our toolbox are extremely limited. And this really is the one that can happen. The one that can have an immediate impact is the minister sort of invoking his powers," Northey said of federal labour minister Steve Mackinnon.

With just over a week to go, all eyes are on negotiations and a potential last-minute deal to keep trains moving.