Federal agency estimates there are more than 24,000 COVID-19 cases in Saskatoon area
An estimated 24,014 Saskatoon area residents are infected with COVID-19 - a number that could soon grow, according to a federal agency's model.
That figure is far higher than the official case count reported by the provincial government.
The data is included in the COVID-19 Toolset developed by Defence Research and Development Canada, which is used by medical advisors for local risk assessment and related advice to commanders.
The prevalence of COVID-19 infections - which includes those who are exposed or infectious - is estimated using a statistical model that considers epidemiological estimates such as incubation and infectious periods, combined with open-source information such as cases.
As of Jan. 7, the toolset's last update, 6.94 per cent of the 346,025 people in the Saskatoon area were infected for a total of 24,014 people.
The model includes an area well beyond Saskatoon’s city limits, though the map does not indicate which other communities are counted.
The Saskatoon area is displayed in the Defence Research and Development Canada COVID-19 Toolkit map.
The model also offers a prediction of prevalence one week into the future.
Saskatoon is expected to see a prevalence of 17.67 per cent by Jan. 13, which means 61,143 people would be infected.
According to the Saskatchewan government dashboard, Saskatoon only has 2,279 active cases - a 1,342 per cent increase over the past 30 days.
Active cases are calculated by subtracting deaths and recovered cases from total cases.
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